Global markets took fright earlier this year, as uncertainty about the path of the renminbi and a sharp fall in the Shanghai stock market, made it seem that China’s economy was headed for a hard landing or financial crisis. Thanks to aggressive government stimulus efforts, these fears have now abated . But economic growth is now supported mainly by a rapid increase in debt, while crucial reforms to the state-owned enterprises and financial sector seem bogged down. On its current trajectory, China could well hit a meltdown of its banking system within the next five years. Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics will analyze the risks and discuss what steps the government must take to avoid a debt trap.

Tuesday, March 29, 2pm
“Currency Wars: How Close is China to Financial Meltdown?”
Arthur Kroeber, Head of Research, Gavekal
Foreign Correspondents’ Club of China
Royal Norwegian Embassy | 80RMB | Registration

Global markets took fright earlier this year, as  uncertainty about the path of the renminbi and  a sharp fall in the Shanghai stock market, made it seem that China’s economy was headed for a hard landing or financial crisis. Thanks to aggressive government stimulus efforts, these fears have now abated . But economic growth is now supported mainly by a rapid increase in debt, while crucial reforms to the state-owned enterprises and financial sector seem bogged down. On its current trajectory, China could well hit a meltdown of its banking system within the next five years. Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal Dragonomics will analyze the risks and discuss what steps the government must take to avoid a debt trap.

Arthur R. Kroeber is head of research at Gavekal, a financial-services firm based in Hong Kong, founder of the China-focused Gavekal Dragonomics research service, and editor of China Economic Quarterly. He divides his time between Beijing and New York. Before founding Dragonomics in 2002, he spent fifteen years as a financial and economic journalist in China and South Asia. He is a senior non-resident fellow of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center, an adjunct professor at the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs, and a member of the National Committee on US-China Relations. His book China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know is published by Oxford University Press in April 2016.

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